The results of the 2013 Kenyan presidential election

Kenya and the world kept their fingers crossed during the Kenyan elections in March 2013. When the results were not immediately released, many people feared that the country would again be plunged into chaos. Parliamentary elections and elections for county governors and county governing bodies were also creating anxiety but most eyes were on the presidential election. Eight candidates were running for president but the fight was, in fact, between Uhuru Kenyatta (from the Kikuyu community) and his running mate William Ruto (from the Kalenjin community) on the one hand, and Raila Odinga (from the Luo community) and Kalonzo Musyoka (from the Kamba community) on the other. Musalia Mudavadi (from the Luhya community) was an outsider who was expected to win votes mainly from his own community. The Kikuyu-Kalenjin combination (Kenyatta/Ruto) won the presidential election with 50.1% of the votes in the first round. The Luo-Kamba combination (Odinga/Musyoka) was second with 43.4% of the votes. According to the new constitution, the winner not only had to have more than 50% of the votes but also at least 25% of the votes in at least half of the counties (i.e. 24 of the 47 counties). As can be seen from the map, both candidates met this requirement (Kenyatta: 32; Odinga: 29).

The map highlights how Kenyans voted (once again) along ethnic lines: indeed all Kikuyu and Kalenjin voted almost as an 'ethnic block' (with the Pokot, a Kalenjin subgroup, as always, a bit stubborn in this respect) and all Luo and Kamba did the same. The Luhya leader got most support in his home area (Vihiga) but even there it was not a majority and in the other Luhya areas the people preferred the Luo leader Odinga. It is interesting to note what happened among the other ethnic groups. The people in Turkana, in Kisii and along the Coast went for Odinga. The Somalis were divided: those in Mandera strongly favoured Kenyatta, while in the other Somali

areas there was a slight preference for Odinga. The Maasai were divided as well, with a marginal preference for Odinga in the west and for Kenyatta in the east. Trans Nzoia shows a very divided picture too, with 37% voting for Kenyatta, 46% for Odinga and 12% for Mudavadi. But the most divided picture can be seen in the capital city Nairobi and amongst the diaspora vote where in both cases there was a slight preference for Odinga, closely followed by Kenyatta.

The map also shows that in all but one county (Vihiga), the two combinations together won morethan 50% of the votes. Indeed, in no less than 40 of the 47 counties, the two combinations together won over 90% of the votes (and in 32 even more than 95%). The only exceptions were the five counties with a strong Luhya presence (Mudavadi’s stronghold) and the two counties where the ‘northeastern’ candidate Mohammed Dida managed to win some support (Isiolo and Wajir). These figures suggest a bit of strategic voting in the non-Kikuyu/Kalenjin/Luo/Kamba communities.

Kenya can now move forward, albeit with a president and vice-president who still face charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague for their involvement in the post-election violence in 2007/2008.

Dick Foeken/Ton Dietz/Nel de Vink