CRG Seminar: Why is Ethiopia entangled in a vicious cycle of conflict?

It is no exaggeration to state that Ethiopia’s historical journey is characterised by violent conflicts and civil wars. This presentation aims to explore the reasons behind Ethiopia's entanglement in cycles of violent conflict. With its centuries-old imperial history followed by seismic reinventions of the national government in the late twentieth century, Ethiopia is no stranger to political turbulence. The long-serving and last emperor of Ethiopia, Haile Selassie I, was overthrown in 1974 by a popular uprising, which was later hijacked by a military council called the Derg. The Derg faced a similar fate, falling in 1991 to ethno-national rebel forces. These rebel forces were instrumental in forming a new ethno-federation in the mid-1990s, leading a coalition of ethno-nationalist forces that governed Ethiopia with an iron fist. Yet, slowly but surely, waves of anti-regime protests rocked Ethiopia, with two of the dominant ethnic groups, the Oromo and the Amhara, at the forefront. The protests ended the TPLF-dominated EPRDF rule and led to the emergence of new political leadership under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The political liberalisation and economic reform led by Abiy Ahmed, underway since April 2018, gave hope to many that the country was moving towards a better future than its predecessor. The reforms lifted the hopes and morale of many Ethiopians who remembered the recent past unfavorably.

This euphoria, however, was dimmed by the parallel rise of violent ethnic conflicts across the country. Although Ethiopia is not new to ethnic-based conflicts, the scale and intensity since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power have been alarming. As feared, the bloodiest war broke out in the northernmost region of Tigray. On November 2, 2022, in Pretoria, Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) signed the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) as part of an African Union (AU)-led process. The agreement concluded a grueling two-year war with significant national and regional implications. In the aftermath of the war between the Ethiopian central government and the Tigray regional government, Ethiopia is once again engaged in violent internal conflict, this time involving guerrilla forces widely known as Fano from the region of Amhara. These violent clashes have claimed the lives of thousands of Ethiopians, forced millions from their homes into new communities, and exacerbated ethnic tensions.

As a result of this vicious cycle of violent conflict, Ethiopians are bitterly divided, and the nation is wracked by immense suffering. In this presentation I argue that Ethiopia's entanglement in this cycle of conflict can best be explained by through the lens of competing narratives of its history, ethnic-based politics, power rivalry, and the exclusionary nature of its state politics.

This seminar is organised by the CRG Conflict continuities.

This event takes places in Leiden in person. For registrees who cannot travel to Leiden a link to an online platform will be sent one day before the start of the event.